Important dates:
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Various 7-day average trends
Estimated Active, split by Age group: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going.
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 02 2020 | 7909 | 38383 | 248 | 59 | 727 | 1307 |
| December 03 2020 | 7956 | 38522 | 248 | 59 | 706 | 1178 |
| December 04 2020 | 8039 | 38754 | 250 | 59 | 703 | 1109 |
| December 05 2020 | 8099 | 38881 | 253 | 61 | 620 | 1024 |
| December 06 2020 | 8149 | 39004 | 254 | 62 | 586 | 967 |
| December 07 2020 | 8178 | 39102 | 254 | 63 | 615 | 928 |
| December 08 2020 | 8207 | 39214 | 257 | 63 | 546 | 871 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 2 | 3.6 | 6.2% | 34 | 0.3% | 43 | 0.37% |
| 10-19 | 3 | 6.7 | 11% | 60 | 0.44% | 101 | 0.74% |
| 20-29 | 9 | 13.9 | 28.4% | 155 | 0.74% | 229 | 1.09% |
| 30-39 | 6 | 10.3 | 19% | 104 | 0.76% | 160 | 1.18% |
| 40-49 | 2 | 4.7 | 10.4% | 57 | 0.54% | 97 | 0.93% |
| 50-59 | 3 | 5.4 | 11.4% | 62 | 0.49% | 112 | 0.89% |
| 60-69 | 3 | 4.0 | 8.4% | 46 | 0.4% | 80 | 0.69% |
| 70+ | 1 | 1.9 | 5.1% | 28 | 0.27% | 49 | 0.47% |
| All ages | 29 | 50.4 | 100% | 546 | 0.52% | 871 | 0.83% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 02 2020 | 4921 | 23146 | 138 | 53 | 666 | 1124 |
| December 03 2020 | 4990 | 23207 | 139 | 53 | 686 | 1096 |
| December 04 2020 | 5051 | 23328 | 141 | 53 | 675 | 1082 |
| December 05 2020 | 5140 | 23414 | 145 | 55 | 685 | 965 |
| December 06 2020 | 5185 | 23476 | 147 | 55 | 655 | 930 |
| December 07 2020 | 5218 | 23536 | 149 | 55 | 687 | 914 |
| December 08 2020 | 5249 | 23588 | 151 | 57 | 714 | 873 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 3.0 | 4.5% | 32 | 0.41% | 39 | 0.5% |
| 10-19 | 3 | 5.0 | 10.2% | 73 | 0.87% | 93 | 1.11% |
| 20-29 | 7 | 11.4 | 15.8% | 113 | 1.59% | 130 | 1.83% |
| 30-39 | 6 | 12.4 | 17.4% | 124 | 1.48% | 157 | 1.87% |
| 40-49 | 2 | 10.6 | 17.2% | 123 | 1.59% | 151 | 1.95% |
| 50-59 | 7 | 7.9 | 12.6% | 90 | 0.93% | 111 | 1.14% |
| 60-69 | 2 | 6.0 | 8.7% | 62 | 0.74% | 75 | 0.89% |
| 70+ | 3 | 8.7 | 13.6% | 97 | 1.36% | 117 | 1.65% |
| All ages | 31 | 65.0 | 100% | 714 | 1.1% | 873 | 1.35% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 02 2020 | 3688 | 15466 | 151 | 41 | 438 | 806 |
| December 03 2020 | 3721 | 15508 | 154 | 41 | 414 | 698 |
| December 04 2020 | 3754 | 15580 | 156 | 42 | 409 | 616 |
| December 05 2020 | 3802 | 15697 | 156 | 40 | 395 | 590 |
| December 06 2020 | 3844 | 15737 | 156 | 47 | 379 | 594 |
| December 07 2020 | 3854 | 15768 | 157 | 47 | 389 | 547 |
| December 08 2020 | 3870 | 15793 | 159 | 47 | 312 | 525 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 1.7 | 5.4% | 17 | 0.31% | 29 | 0.53% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 3.0 | 8.3% | 26 | 0.48% | 42 | 0.77% |
| 20-29 | 4 | 4.4 | 13.1% | 41 | 0.91% | 69 | 1.53% |
| 30-39 | 1 | 5.4 | 15.4% | 48 | 0.88% | 79 | 1.46% |
| 40-49 | 2 | 4.3 | 13.1% | 41 | 0.82% | 67 | 1.35% |
| 50-59 | 5 | 4.9 | 14.4% | 45 | 0.66% | 83 | 1.22% |
| 60-69 | 3 | 3.4 | 14.1% | 44 | 0.69% | 69 | 1.09% |
| 70+ | 0 | 4.3 | 16% | 50 | 0.79% | 87 | 1.37% |
| All ages | 16 | 31.4 | 100% | 312 | 0.69% | 525 | 1.16% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 02 2020 | 8209 | 40943 | 173 | 37 | 869 | 1364 |
| December 03 2020 | 8400 | 41172 | 180 | 38 | 999 | 1481 |
| December 04 2020 | 8556 | 41411 | 180 | 39 | 1056 | 1475 |
| December 05 2020 | 8641 | 41604 | 181 | 39 | 990 | 1354 |
| December 06 2020 | 8677 | 41807 | 182 | 40 | 916 | 1337 |
| December 07 2020 | 8706 | 41889 | 182 | 40 | 893 | 1305 |
| December 08 2020 | 8833 | 42075 | 192 | 42 | 927 | 1333 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 3 | 4.4 | 3.8% | 35 | 0.3% | 54 | 0.46% |
| 10-19 | 14 | 12.3 | 12.3% | 114 | 0.69% | 154 | 0.93% |
| 20-29 | 26 | 20.3 | 19.8% | 184 | 0.86% | 268 | 1.26% |
| 30-39 | 21 | 17.3 | 16.2% | 150 | 1.1% | 218 | 1.6% |
| 40-49 | 18 | 13.1 | 12.7% | 118 | 0.87% | 172 | 1.27% |
| 50-59 | 22 | 14.4 | 14.5% | 134 | 0.94% | 185 | 1.3% |
| 60-69 | 17 | 11.1 | 10.6% | 98 | 0.69% | 143 | 1.01% |
| 70+ | 6 | 8.0 | 10.1% | 94 | 0.72% | 139 | 1.07% |
| All ages | 127 | 101.0 | 100% | 927 | 0.78% | 1333 | 1.13% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 02 2020 | 27830 | 276346 | 811 | 102 | 2964 | 4356 |
| December 03 2020 | 28226 | 277243 | 823 | 102 | 3220 | 4357 |
| December 04 2020 | 28610 | 278095 | 837 | 102 | 2855 | 4293 |
| December 05 2020 | 28947 | 278814 | 845 | 104 | 2957 | 4293 |
| December 06 2020 | 29053 | 279749 | 850 | 104 | 2686 | 4187 |
| December 07 2020 | 29303 | 280474 | 855 | 104 | 2891 | 4297 |
| December 08 2020 | 29450 | 280669 | 866 | 107 | 2607 | 3695 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 8 | 11.4 | 4.7% | 122 | 0.2% | 190 | 0.32% |
| 10-19 | 15 | 34.9 | 12.7% | 331 | 0.47% | 476 | 0.67% |
| 20-29 | 19 | 56.4 | 20.4% | 532 | 0.51% | 792 | 0.76% |
| 30-39 | 25 | 47.3 | 17.7% | 462 | 0.6% | 638 | 0.83% |
| 40-49 | 21 | 37.1 | 14.7% | 384 | 0.59% | 534 | 0.81% |
| 50-59 | 26 | 32.7 | 13% | 340 | 0.52% | 457 | 0.7% |
| 60-69 | 21 | 23.9 | 8.4% | 219 | 0.4% | 299 | 0.55% |
| 70+ | 12 | 20.6 | 8.3% | 217 | 0.44% | 309 | 0.63% |
| All ages | 147 | 264.3 | 100% | 2607 | 0.48% | 3695 | 0.68% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 02 2020 | 395090 | 2162616 | 17569 | 3502 | 40414 | 63253 |
| December 03 2020 | 399708 | 2169970 | 17741 | 3562 | 41937 | 61236 |
| December 04 2020 | 404555 | 2180320 | 17943 | 3625 | 40582 | 59610 |
| December 05 2020 | 409386 | 2188949 | 18126 | 3702 | 39944 | 58217 |
| December 06 2020 | 412177 | 2196722 | 18216 | 3719 | 37640 | 57501 |
| December 07 2020 | 414332 | 2202473 | 18286 | 3738 | 38495 | 56561 |
| December 08 2020 | 418446 | 2207950 | 18500 | 3806 | 37576 | 54473 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 198 | 180.9 | 4.5% | 1673 | 0.26% | 2435 | 0.38% |
| 10-19 | 450 | 430.6 | 11% | 4142 | 0.55% | 5946 | 0.79% |
| 20-29 | 649 | 651.7 | 16.6% | 6250 | 0.83% | 9262 | 1.22% |
| 30-39 | 668 | 646.3 | 16.4% | 6159 | 0.81% | 8744 | 1.16% |
| 40-49 | 568 | 556.6 | 14.4% | 5393 | 0.77% | 7852 | 1.12% |
| 50-59 | 651 | 583.1 | 15.3% | 5743 | 0.7% | 8273 | 1.01% |
| 60-69 | 515 | 443.4 | 11.5% | 4306 | 0.57% | 6175 | 0.82% |
| 70+ | 414 | 383.4 | 10.4% | 3909 | 0.61% | 5785 | 0.9% |
| All ages | 4114 | 3876.1 | 100% | 37576 | 0.65% | 54473 | 0.94% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 83.2 | 74.2 | 109.4 | 50.4 | 90.4 | 26.8% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 135 | 65 | 80.3 | 48% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 116 | 31.4 | 46.7 | 35.6% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 112.7 | 93 | 125.9 | 101 | 104.6 | 36.4% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 67.6 | 67 | 76.2 | 264.3 | 299.3 | 28.4% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 93.6 | 78.6 | 122.4 | 3876.1 | 4413.1 | 34.5% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 3.8 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.53 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-12-30 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 3502"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges